Should we sound a pessimistic note for summer tourism on Route 66 in 2021?

Though two COVID-19 vaccines have been rolling out in the United States and worldwide for several weeks, Route 66 business owners perhaps shouldn’t be too high-flying in their optimism for a normal tourism season.

Frank Gifford, a photographer and longtime explorer of the Mother Road, had a pessimistic take in “Life in the Time of COVID” on his blog.

Gifford notes two of the eight Route 66 states — California and New Mexico — ask travelers to self-quarantine even if they have received the required inoculations from Pfizer or Moderna.

(It should be noted New Mexico on Wednesday softened its stance from a required self-quarantine to a recommended self-quarantine because of a sharp drop in COVID-19 cases in recent weeks and vaccine distribution that ranks among the best in the nation.)

Gifford writes:

In both cases, there is no exception for the vaccinated, although this appears illogical.  This group should become the majority around mid-year. NM exempts airline personnel, first responders, the military and their dependents etc. why not the fully vaccinated? […]
Normally state border crossings are non-events, but unnecessary restrictions could doom Route 66 (and other) tourism for a second year.  Tourists won’t endure lengthy quarantines, they’ll ignore them or stay away.
Some states require a fresh negative Covid-19 test result … but tests can be very hard to get. Other regulations are a crazy-quilt, with severe limits on bar and restaurant capacity which can vary between towns.  Mask requirements, and compliance, also vary.
The best advice for non-Americans considering any extended US pleasure trip is to skip 2021 and hope for normal life to resume in 2022.

Gifford said he also is troubled by data that suggests one-quarter of Americans don’t want the vaccine.

“This combined with anti-mask zealots and religious super-spreading events will only prolong the pandemic. Meantime, the virus is mutating into several more-contagious strains,” he stated.

Barring vast and fast improvement in vaccination rates, Route 66 tourism from Europe probably won’t happen this summer. The U.S. still has a travel ban from that continent in place, and a new variant of coronavirus in Europe may make overseas flights a moot point for months.

I asked author and travel consultant Jim Hinckley for some thoughts. He, too, thinks foreigner travel on Route 66 will be diminished for a second straight summer. He stated in an email about tour groups:

Many of these companies work on 18 and 24 month schedules. How can they begin booking tours for summer without knowing if travel will be possible? 
Quarantine is an issue. As I understand it New Zealand is requiring travelers that return to the country to quarantine for two weeks.
Next look at the airline curtailment and the companies long-term plans. Their projections are telling.
In discussions with tour company owners, it looks as though there will be issues associated with travelers insurance. So, if we get a vaccination program in place, and infection numbers stabilize, we will see an uptick in international travelers this summer. But it will most likely be minimal.
A ray of sunshine is that Americans are rediscovering the road trip. Look at the dramatic rise in RV sales and rentals. 

I concede a return of European travelers on the Mother Road looks very unlikely in 2021.

However, we already are seeing positive effects from a relatively small number of vaccinations. And the new presidential administration is a lot more focused on this issue. A health expert I respect said you soon will see an exponential decline in coronavirus cases, much like you saw an exponential growth of the disease in the late fall.

Even with the growth of variants, the number of people vaccinated should reach close to a critical mass by May or June. Health experts say if you contract a variant after you’re vaccinated, your chance of experiencing a severe illness will be much, much less. The prospect of avoiding a trip to the hospital will give potential travelers much more confidence to roam.

In short, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big surge of domestic travel on Route 66 by mid to late summer, helping ameliorate the lack of international travelers.

I’m curious to know what you think, especially if you’re in the travel industry. Feel free to comment below.

(Image of the giant Route 66 shield at the National Route 66 Museum in Elk City, Oklahoma, by Steve Walser via Flickr)